Samsung and Numonyx today announced that they will jointly develop common specifications for phase change memory (PCM). Common specifications are necessary to drive the adoption of PCM, particularly since OEMs do not want to be beholden to one supplier. The development of common specifications is analogous to what Intel and ST did in NOR flash starting with the 90nm NOR flash generation and resulted in Intel and ST being dual sourced at major OEMs.
The bit alterability of PCM make it attractive in simplifying firmware and reducing system overhead, however, adoption of PCM will likely be limited until costs approach that of flash memories. With a 45nm 1Gb PCM chip scheduled for production for the end of 2009, Numonyx will be closing the gap with NOR flash, however it'll take much longer for a new memory technology to break out of its niche status, if at all. Just take a look at where FRAM and MRAM are today.
This colloboration is the right step to facilitate the development of the infrastructure supporting PCM. Samsung's backing is a validation of the technology and also provides OEMs the confidence to commit themselves to this emerging memory technology.
Showing posts with label Intel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Intel. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Fujitsu Next
Intel Corporation and Hitachi Global Storage Technologies announced that they will jointly develop Serial Attached SCSI (SAS) and Fibre Channel (FC) enterprise class solid-state drives (SSDs) for servers, workstations and storage systems. This is an exclusive agreement to develop and deliver SAS and FC enterprise SSDs with availability of the first products in early 2010.
This is a complementary partnership marrying Hitachi GST’s drive, channel and system knowledge together with Intel’s NAND flash and flash management expertise. Hitachi selected a strong NAND flash partner that doesn’t compete with it in its core HDD business. Now that two of the three enterprise HDD makers, Seagate and Hitachi, have publicly announced plans for enterprise SSDs, Fujitsu will be compelled to react, especially with its 23% enterprise HDD market share to protect.
Seagate may feel it is big enough to source the NAND flash and develop the SSDs on its own however, Fujitsu may need to develop a partnership with a NAND flash vendor. Two possible candidates: Micron and Hynix - NAND flash vendors with SSD ambitions but no competing HDD businesses. Micron has flash management expertise acquired through its own SSD development and leading cost structure based on 34nm technology. On the other hand, Hynix is lagging on both the SSD and NAND flash technology front.
If rumors of Western Digital acquiring Fujitsu's HDD business are correct, a company that has sat on the sidelines as companies have rushed into the SSD market will have to finally step up to the plate.
This is a complementary partnership marrying Hitachi GST’s drive, channel and system knowledge together with Intel’s NAND flash and flash management expertise. Hitachi selected a strong NAND flash partner that doesn’t compete with it in its core HDD business. Now that two of the three enterprise HDD makers, Seagate and Hitachi, have publicly announced plans for enterprise SSDs, Fujitsu will be compelled to react, especially with its 23% enterprise HDD market share to protect.
Seagate may feel it is big enough to source the NAND flash and develop the SSDs on its own however, Fujitsu may need to develop a partnership with a NAND flash vendor. Two possible candidates: Micron and Hynix - NAND flash vendors with SSD ambitions but no competing HDD businesses. Micron has flash management expertise acquired through its own SSD development and leading cost structure based on 34nm technology. On the other hand, Hynix is lagging on both the SSD and NAND flash technology front.
If rumors of Western Digital acquiring Fujitsu's HDD business are correct, a company that has sat on the sidelines as companies have rushed into the SSD market will have to finally step up to the plate.
Saturday, August 16, 2008
Seagate to Purchase SanDisk? Definitely, Maybe Not
Rumors are flying about Seagate buying SanDisk or Intel's stake in Intel-Micron Flash Technologies (http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=210004140). Does it make sense? Seagate does need access to low cost NAND flash to fuel its SSD ambitions. Here are some ways to think about it.
1. If Seagate were to purchase SanDisk or Intel's portion of IMFT, what are they going to do with all that capacity? SSDs are not going to be able to eat up all that capacity, at least not for the next couple of years. Does Seagate want to manufacture flash memory cards or supply to MP3 players? SanDisk's operating margin in 2007 was 8% and Seagate's 6.8% in FY08. However, if you strip out income from royalties and licensing, SanDisk's operating margins were -5%. Combining a primarily OEM HDD business with a low margin retail business could be challenging.
2. Seagate is primarily interested in enterprise SSDs which uses exclusively SLC NAND flash technology. Any SanDisk acquisition provides Segate with 150k 300mm wafers per month of MLC NAND technology. Spending $4 billion (market cap of SanDisk) to obtain MLC NAND flash technology for enterprise SSDs? (SanDisk and partner Toshiba currently do not manufacture any high density SLC NAND parts, although that could change in the near future.)
3. Seagate spends almost $1 billion in capex ($930m in FY08) p.a. in their HDD business. SanDisk in 2007 spent roughly $1.6 billion and Intel $1 billion in NAND flash. Looks like Seagate's capex would have to at least double if it wants to become a NAND flash manufacturer and it's balance sheet would be strained supporting such a high level of investment.
4. Intel is not ready to exit NAND flash, at least not in the near term. IMFT has typically been behind the technology leaders by 1-2 process generations. With the 34nm announcement, they are about to leap ahead. With the technology lead, IMFT will presumably have the lowest costs. In addition, Intel will be releasing a slew of competitive SSD offerings in the next months. If, with the lowest costs in the industry and a very strong product lineup, Intel still can't make money, then it will consider whether it makes sense to be in this business, but they're not going to quit before giving it their best shot.
Seagate needs access to low cost NAND flash and they don't need to obtain that access by getting into the retail flash card business or doubling their annual capex. They could achieve the same means by either investing a small equity stake in a NAND flash vendor or placing an upfront payment to secure NAND flash capacity at preferential pricing. Apple did something similar when it introduced its first flash-based iPOD. Such an arrangement also affords Seagate sourcing flexibility especially if those wild hockey stick projections of SSD shipments don't pan out.
1. If Seagate were to purchase SanDisk or Intel's portion of IMFT, what are they going to do with all that capacity? SSDs are not going to be able to eat up all that capacity, at least not for the next couple of years. Does Seagate want to manufacture flash memory cards or supply to MP3 players? SanDisk's operating margin in 2007 was 8% and Seagate's 6.8% in FY08. However, if you strip out income from royalties and licensing, SanDisk's operating margins were -5%. Combining a primarily OEM HDD business with a low margin retail business could be challenging.
2. Seagate is primarily interested in enterprise SSDs which uses exclusively SLC NAND flash technology. Any SanDisk acquisition provides Segate with 150k 300mm wafers per month of MLC NAND technology. Spending $4 billion (market cap of SanDisk) to obtain MLC NAND flash technology for enterprise SSDs? (SanDisk and partner Toshiba currently do not manufacture any high density SLC NAND parts, although that could change in the near future.)
3. Seagate spends almost $1 billion in capex ($930m in FY08) p.a. in their HDD business. SanDisk in 2007 spent roughly $1.6 billion and Intel $1 billion in NAND flash. Looks like Seagate's capex would have to at least double if it wants to become a NAND flash manufacturer and it's balance sheet would be strained supporting such a high level of investment.
4. Intel is not ready to exit NAND flash, at least not in the near term. IMFT has typically been behind the technology leaders by 1-2 process generations. With the 34nm announcement, they are about to leap ahead. With the technology lead, IMFT will presumably have the lowest costs. In addition, Intel will be releasing a slew of competitive SSD offerings in the next months. If, with the lowest costs in the industry and a very strong product lineup, Intel still can't make money, then it will consider whether it makes sense to be in this business, but they're not going to quit before giving it their best shot.
Seagate needs access to low cost NAND flash and they don't need to obtain that access by getting into the retail flash card business or doubling their annual capex. They could achieve the same means by either investing a small equity stake in a NAND flash vendor or placing an upfront payment to secure NAND flash capacity at preferential pricing. Apple did something similar when it introduced its first flash-based iPOD. Such an arrangement also affords Seagate sourcing flexibility especially if those wild hockey stick projections of SSD shipments don't pan out.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Hynix Develops x3
Hynix announced it has developed a 32Gb 3-bit per cell NAND flash slated for production in October. Hynix stated that the 3-bit per cell technology would enable cost reductions of 30% over 2-bit per cell technology. The 32Gb chip is based on 48nm process technology.
Based on my estimates, the die size of this device should be over 200mm2, much larger than the 172mm2 of the recently announced 34nm 32Gb MLC NAND flash from Intel/Micron. It is unlikely the chip is using the All-Bitline architecture developed by SanDisk and Toshiba implying a fairly low program performance.
The 32Gb chip will probably be employed as a learning vehicle for applications enablement until a more competitive 41nm offering comes out next year.
Based on my estimates, the die size of this device should be over 200mm2, much larger than the 172mm2 of the recently announced 34nm 32Gb MLC NAND flash from Intel/Micron. It is unlikely the chip is using the All-Bitline architecture developed by SanDisk and Toshiba implying a fairly low program performance.
The 32Gb chip will probably be employed as a learning vehicle for applications enablement until a more competitive 41nm offering comes out next year.
Thursday, May 29, 2008
Intel and Micron Leapfrog the Competition
Intel and Micron announced today that it will be sampling a 34nm 32Gb MLC NAND flash to customers in June with production slated for the second half of 2008. Owing to the aggressive gate half-pitch, immersion lithography with self-aligned double patterning employing spacers is most likely being used. Also expect changes in the bitline and wordline materials as well as a higher k interpoly dielectric in comparison to the 50nm generation.
At 172mm2, Intel-Micron's 32Gb product will be the only 32Gb monolithic MLC device capable of fitting in a TSOP package. If the ramp of IMFT's 50nm 16Gb device is any guide, we should expect to see volume in December or in early Q1/09. It's quite remarkable that Intel-Micron have managed to catch up and surpass the other NAND flash vendors on process technology in the short span of three years. IMFT achieved this milestone by skipping the 6xnm and 4xnm nodes. However, any cost advantage could be short-lived if IMFT fails to ramp up the technology smoothly and SanDisk/Toshiba ramps its 43nm 32Gb x3 in Q1/09 as planned.
At 172mm2, Intel-Micron's 32Gb product will be the only 32Gb monolithic MLC device capable of fitting in a TSOP package. If the ramp of IMFT's 50nm 16Gb device is any guide, we should expect to see volume in December or in early Q1/09. It's quite remarkable that Intel-Micron have managed to catch up and surpass the other NAND flash vendors on process technology in the short span of three years. IMFT achieved this milestone by skipping the 6xnm and 4xnm nodes. However, any cost advantage could be short-lived if IMFT fails to ramp up the technology smoothly and SanDisk/Toshiba ramps its 43nm 32Gb x3 in Q1/09 as planned.
Monday, March 31, 2008
Numonyx Born #1
Intel and STMicroelectronics today announced the official launch of their JV, Numonyx. Numonyx combines the NOR flash assets of Intel and NAND and NOR assets of ST under one roof.
Numonyx starts out its first day as the number one NOR flash vendor, overtaking Spansion. Now, like Spansion and other NOR flash vendors, it must find a way to make money. It’s not going to be easy with the economy in bad shape and NOR flash pricing affected by falling NAND flash prices. The new company, does however, have a few things going for it.
1. By merging two similar businesses, there’s a lot of low hanging fruit and
opportunities to cut costs.
2. Numonyx will have dedicated facilities for production unlike in the past when it had to compete for resources with chipset or logic products.
3. Numonyx is 1.5 years and 2 years ahead of Spansion and Samsung on the technology roadmap.
4. At Intel and ST, flash memory was a side business. At Numonyx, flash memory is a core business.
This last point is what makes Numonyx a formidable competitor. It must succeed just to survive.
Numonyx starts out its first day as the number one NOR flash vendor, overtaking Spansion. Now, like Spansion and other NOR flash vendors, it must find a way to make money. It’s not going to be easy with the economy in bad shape and NOR flash pricing affected by falling NAND flash prices. The new company, does however, have a few things going for it.
1. By merging two similar businesses, there’s a lot of low hanging fruit and
opportunities to cut costs.
2. Numonyx will have dedicated facilities for production unlike in the past when it had to compete for resources with chipset or logic products.
3. Numonyx is 1.5 years and 2 years ahead of Spansion and Samsung on the technology roadmap.
4. At Intel and ST, flash memory was a side business. At Numonyx, flash memory is a core business.
This last point is what makes Numonyx a formidable competitor. It must succeed just to survive.
Saturday, March 22, 2008
Hynix Connects the Dots
On March 20, Nanosys, Inc. announced that Hynix Semiconductor Inc. will collaborate with Nanosys to employ Nanosys' quantum dot flash memory technologies (QDM) for NAND based flash memory. Hynix is the third major semiconductor manufacturer to sign up for access to Nanosys’ technology. Intel invested $38 million in Nanosys’ second round financing that closed in May 2003 and subsequently, announced a technical collaboration in 2004 to explore the use of nanocrystals in memory devices. In 2006, the collaboration was expanded to include Intel’s NAND flash memory partner, Micron Technology.
NAND-based nanocrystal memories can potentially provide a scaling path for current floating gate (FG) technologies by reducing the capacitive coupling between cells and eliminating SILC. The main challenge has been the controllability and uniformity of the nanocrystal size and distribution with technology scaling.
Nanosys claims to have solved this issue. Nanosys’ QDM with proprietary ligands are applied with a traditional spin-on process and self-assemble into a consistent monolayer on the wafer. The integration involves fewer process steps than either FG or nitride charge trap flash (CTF) alternatives while offering a very large voltage threshold window for enhanced MLC capability.
If QDM can deliver on its promise, we could see QDM enter into production at the 3xnm node and beyond.
NAND-based nanocrystal memories can potentially provide a scaling path for current floating gate (FG) technologies by reducing the capacitive coupling between cells and eliminating SILC. The main challenge has been the controllability and uniformity of the nanocrystal size and distribution with technology scaling.
Nanosys claims to have solved this issue. Nanosys’ QDM with proprietary ligands are applied with a traditional spin-on process and self-assemble into a consistent monolayer on the wafer. The integration involves fewer process steps than either FG or nitride charge trap flash (CTF) alternatives while offering a very large voltage threshold window for enhanced MLC capability.
If QDM can deliver on its promise, we could see QDM enter into production at the 3xnm node and beyond.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
NAND Flash Capex - Full Steam Ahead!
Despite the current oversupply environment and the heavy price drops this quarter (Intel reported ASP declines of 53%), NAND flash manufacturers are maintaining aggressive capex plans. Samsung's ramp of its Austin facility and Hynix's ramp of M11 will offset some of the retirement of 200mm NAND capacity from both companies.
IMFT has maximized its capacity at Manassas and Lehi and will ramp its Singapore fab with maximum capacity of 60k wpm starting in Q3/08. Toshiba/SanDisk's Fab3 reached its full capacity of 150k wpm in September 2007 with Fab4 volume ramp started in December. Fab4 is a massive fab with maximum capacity of 210k wpm.
Powerchip Semiconductor is currently building two fabs P4 and P5 dedicated to the manufacture of NAND flash. These fabs are not expected to ramp in volume until the 50nm generation in 2009.
Spansion as well as foundry partners TSMC and SMIC capex figures includes fungible capacity that may be used to manufacture Mirrorbit NOR.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Flash Memory Replacement Achieves Major Milestones
At last week’s ISSCC, Intel and STMicroelectronics presented a paper demonstrating the first multi-level cell phase change memory [PCM]. The chip is a 256Mb device based on 90-nanometer process technology. PCM has been touted as a potential replacement for flash memory due to its fast reads and writes and superior endurance.
On the same day of the ISSCC paper, Intel and ST began shipments of prototype samples to customers of a 128Mb chip also based on the same 90nm technology. Careful reading of the ISSCC paper implies that the 256Mb MLC device and the 128Mb device are one and the same chip. The MLC technology is still in the research phase and it appears the prototype samples have the MLC functionality disabled.
The 128Mb product is mainly a learning vehicle to improve the technology for volume manufacturing, to learn about which applications may be suitable for PCM and to develop the firmware to support the devices. Due to the high initial cost of PCM, the 90nm devices will have limited production volume, however, this is expected to change as PCM migrates to more advanced process technologies and MLC technology is deployed.
PCM’s time will come as flash memory encounters scaling limitations within the next five years.
On the same day of the ISSCC paper, Intel and ST began shipments of prototype samples to customers of a 128Mb chip also based on the same 90nm technology. Careful reading of the ISSCC paper implies that the 256Mb MLC device and the 128Mb device are one and the same chip. The MLC technology is still in the research phase and it appears the prototype samples have the MLC functionality disabled.
The 128Mb product is mainly a learning vehicle to improve the technology for volume manufacturing, to learn about which applications may be suitable for PCM and to develop the firmware to support the devices. Due to the high initial cost of PCM, the 90nm devices will have limited production volume, however, this is expected to change as PCM migrates to more advanced process technologies and MLC technology is deployed.
PCM’s time will come as flash memory encounters scaling limitations within the next five years.
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